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I need help with some blackjack strategy indexes.?

Question: I need help with some blackjack strategy indexes.?

(Posted by: Michael Archer on 2009-06-02 20:47:57)

Dealer stand against Soft 17. Hi- Lo counting system. TC=true count A9 vs 6 TC=+4 A9 vs 5 TC=+5 A8 vs 6 TC=+1 A8 vs 5 TC=+1 A8 vs 4 TC=+3 A7 vs 2 TC= >0 9, 9 vs 7 TC=+3 9, 9 vs Ace +3 8 vs 6 +1 8 vs 5 +3 A, 2 vs 4 +3 A, 3 vs 4 +1 7, 7 vs 8 +5 3, 3 vs 8 +4 2, 2 vs 8 +5 What action would you take in these cases? On the charts, it only gives the number and there were multiple logical actions. On the higher soft totals, to me, there was no logical action.


Answers:

Posted by: sandynlily on 2009-06-03, 19:22:18

A9 vs 6 TC= + 4---dd A9 vs 5 TC= + 5---dd A8 vs 6 TC= + 1--dd ***it is basic strategy to double down this hand when the dealer hits a soft 17, always remember that A8 vs 5 TC= + 1--dd A8 vs 4 TC= + 3---dd A7 vs 2 TC= >0---dd ***it is basic strategy to double down this hand when the dealer hits a soft 17, always remember that 9,9 vs 7 TC= + 3 ----split 9,9 vs Ace + 3---split 8 vs 6 + 1---dd 8 vs 5 + 3---dd A,2 vs 4 + 3---dd A,3 vs 4 + 1---dd 7,7 vs 8 + 5---split 3, 3 vs 8 + 4---split 2,2 vs 8 + 5---split That other guy doesnt know everything he could know about what hes talking about, the number of decks is a variable, but it results in minimal change of index number values, in addition, index numbers are typicclayy raised already beyond the calculated minimum that woudl justify a deviation for reasons of maximising EV. Which is the reason you make deviations, to maximise ev. In the sum of every way a hand can play out, there is a hypothetical expected return on investment for every action you may take be it hit/ stand/ double etc. as the count changes so does the frquency at which hands play out different ways, and ultimately so does the expected return for each type of action. When you plot on a graph the expected return return on investment for each action as the count changes, you will see that differnt actions change at differnt rates, eventually the lines cross, and one action will become more favorable than another, the point where they cross and are of equal value is the true hypothetical index value, however the numbers you use in player are whole numbers which are always rounded up conervativle, and for risk averse reasons. So while with 8 decks the true index might be 3.47 and with only one deck the true index might be 3.76 using an index of 4 will result in increased profits no matter how many decks are in play. In addition, index numbers are sometims figured as "risk averse " index numbers to help minimise your ror, by ensuring you dont put more money into action for little gain, which is bassically what ROR is directly effected by. For example, a true index of 3.47 say would suggest an index of 4 but if at counts of + 4, the player was only expecting to win 0.05% more ev than the basic strategy action the index number would be raise untill the gain from making the deviation ws high enough to justify putting more money into action, so perhaps it would be set at + 5 or + 6 instead. When indexes are figured, they are figured well, and they are there for a reason, and the reason being that the deviation is in your best interest. Any player who thinks that you should not use indexes does not undertsand how blackjack works, I am not disagreeing here, im laying down the law, strategy deviations are in your best interest for making more money. Playing blackjack professionally for profit, is not about what you think is coming, and what might happen if you hit or stand, its about sound odds, and betting on them in a manor that puts the odds into your favor, it can be done, and if you want to do it in the best way possible, you should be incorperating indexes, apparently you, the asker, know this, but i also want to make this clear to otehr readers, since the other answer completely suggests them not to be used, and even mentions "examples of how hands might play out " which is ridiculous reasoning that means nothing.

  

Posted by: pdqkemp on 2009-06-03, 04:33:37

A couple points I'll make that may be an answer to your inquiry. (More likely, they may not!) #1 - One thing you didn't mention is how many decks you were playing with, and how DEEP into the deck(s) you are. This makes a difference with how much you should be betting, but not necessarily what action you should take. #2 - I am a believer that you should rarely deviate from basic strategy because of the count. (I'm sure there will be some folks that disagree.) Let's just take one high-count example from your list: Take 7,7 vs. 8 with a + 5 count. Bottom line, you're in trouble this hand. Lot's of 10's left means it's more likely that he's got the 18, AND it's more likely that if you hit, you'll go bust. But what else would you do?!? Split it??? No way! You're more likely to get 17 & 17 and have 2 losing hands. I'll never forget the advice I got when I had a huge bet one day...I received hard 16 vs. the dealer's 10. (I wasn't counting at the time.) I squirmed thinking about my decision...maybe I should just stay.....Finally an old guy next to me said, "Hit it like a man! " I did, and I caught the 5. Don't deviate from basic strategy regardless of the count, unless you've got a specific reason to do so. (I just checked over each example you gave...I wouldn't change from basic strategy for any of those situations.)

  

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